• Robin Koerner

COVID-19: Bad Math = Bad Morality

From a peer-reviewed paper by John P. A. Ioannidis, a Stanford University professor who is highly regarded in evidence-based medicine, epidemiology, and clinical research, which has been accepted and promulgated by WHO (World Health Organization):


"For people < 70 years old, the infection fatality rate of COVId-19 across 40 locations with available data ranged from 0.00% to 0.31% (median 0.05%)"

According to Tim Peto at the Nuffield Department of Medicine at the University of Oxford, an untargeted quarantine of 1000 people for a day prevents ONE COVID transmission.


So do the simple math. Multiply 0.05% (1 in 2000) by the 1 transmission/1000 people-days and you will see that a lock-down of TWO MILLION people for ONE DAY prevents ONE death among the under 70s.

Now, here's some shocking perspective.


There are about 200 million drivers in the USA (actually 227 million). If we locked them all down for a day, we'd therefore save 100 lives that would have been lost from COVID.


But that number is about the same as the number of people who die in fatal car accidents every day in the USA.

In other words, our lock-downs prevent about as many road deaths as COVID deaths (assuming that being locked-down means no driving).


So why weren't we locking everyone down everyone before to prevent the same number of road deaths? And since the lock-down is as effective as preventing road and COVID deaths, why not keep it after COVID has disappeared?

To make the comparison even more telling, realize that it's much better for one's life to be able to work or socialize but not to drive than it is to drive but not to be able to work or socialize.


To state the obvious, the vulnerable (including the over 70s and those with co-morbidities etc.) need to be protected, but how should we go about that?

The greater the harm you seek to impose on others (such as the destruction of their businesses, damaging their mental health, and preventing loved ones from comforting each other in times of tragedy or need etc.), the more morally necessary it is that the data justify your view.


That's why you might want to sign this.